BY NOXOLO DLAMINI
PIGG’S PEAK— Communities are increasingly exposed to weather-related hazards such as heavy rainfall, flooding, strong winds, drought and severe thunderstorms, highlighting the need for forecasts that do more than simply predict the weather.
Speaking at the Regional Validation Workshop on Impact-Based Forecasting (IBF), Musa Nxongwane, Acting CEO of the Eswatini Meteorological Service, said the growing exposure to hazards requires a shift towards understanding the likely consequences of weather events and what can be done to reduce their effects.
“We are living in a time where communities are increasingly exposed to hazards, including heavy rainfall, flooding, strong winds, drought and severe thunderstorms,” Nxongwane said.
He explained that the key challenge is no longer simply knowing what the weather will be, but understanding what the forecast means for people and their surroundings.
“The challenge is not to know what the weather will be but to know what the weather will do, who will be affected and what can we do about it,” he said.
Nxongwane described this as the fundamental principle behind Impact-Based Forecasting, an approach that moves beyond traditional weather forecasts to provide information about potential impacts on people, livelihoods, infrastructure and other vulnerable sectors.
IBF combines information about hazards with exposure and vulnerability to help identify potential risks and support informed decision-making and early action.
The approach is particularly important in disaster preparedness because timely information about possible impacts can allow authorities, communities and other stakeholders to take preventive measures before a hazardous event occurs. The World Meteorological Organization also emphasizes partnerships, impact information and effective communication as important elements in developing impact-based forecast and warning services.
The regional validation workshop therefore provides an opportunity for stakeholders to strengthen their understanding of IBF and contribute local knowledge that can help make weather warnings more relevant and actionable.
Through such collaboration, weather information can increasingly move from simply telling communities what the weather will be to helping them understand what the weather will do and what action should be taken.
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#EarlyWarning #ClimateResilience #WeatherHazards
