BY NOXOLO DLAMINI
PIGGS PEAK – Eswatini’s economic outlook for 2026 to 2031 is under review as key stakeholders from government, the private sector and parastatals converge at Sibanesami Hotel for the Medium-Term GDP Projections 2026–2031 Validation Workshop.
Hosted by the Ministry of Economic Planning and Development (MEPD), the workshop provides a platform for stakeholders to scrutinise and validate the assumptions that will underpin the country’s medium-term Gross Domestic Product (GDP) projections.
The workshop was officially opened by the Ministry’s Chief Economist, Sifiso Mamba, who welcomed participants and highlighted the importance of their expertise, data and sector-specific insights in strengthening Eswatini’s economic forecasting process.
The projections have been informed by data and information gathered through the Ministry’s Annual Company Survey process, as well as consultations and engagements with stakeholders across various sectors of the economy.
The validation process seeks to ensure that the GDP projections expected to be released in the coming weeks are credible, transparent, relevant and reflective of prevailing economic conditions.
Once finalised, the projections are expected to provide an important basis for government policy decisions, budget frameworks, investment planning and programming by both the public and private sectors.
Stakeholders are also examining the factors likely to influence economic growth across key sectors, while identifying potential risks and opportunities that could shape Eswatini’s economic performance over the medium term.
The discussions further take into account regional and global economic developments, policy instruments and structural reforms, recognising that external developments can have a significant impact on the domestic economy.
Financial Sector Expected to Sustain Positive Growth
One of the key sectoral presentations focused on Insurance, Pension and Financial Activities, presented by Thokozane Sibiya from the Central Bank of Eswatini.
The sector is projected to maintain positive growth throughout the medium term, supported by developments in insurance, pension, banking, Savings and Credit Cooperative Societies (SACCOs) and credit activities.
For 2026, the sector is projected to grow by 4.0 percent. Insurance and pension premiums are expected to benefit from the spillover effects of the 2025 government salary adjustments, while banking, SACCO and credit activities are anticipated to strengthen, partly due to increased credit uptake by government employees.
However, these gains could be partially offset by losses in long-term investment income following the global market downturn experienced during the first quarter of 2026.
Growth is projected to accelerate to 7.9 percent in 2027, supported by new construction projects expected to increase demand for project, asset and employee insurance coverage.
The banking industry is also expected to expand, with two new banking licences anticipated to be finalised in the fourth quarter of 2026, alongside the introduction of related financial products. Rising workers’ compensation claims could, however, temper premium growth.
In 2028, the sector is projected to record 5.0 percent growth, with technological advancement and improved digital financial services expected to support net interest income among credit institutions and SACCOs. Investment performance in the insurance and pension industries is also expected to stabilise, supported by favourable base effects and improved risk management in financial markets.
For 2029 to 2031, average growth is projected at 4.1 percent, with the sector’s outlook remaining favourable. Expansion plans, anticipated new banking licences and continued technological advancement are expected to support the sector.
Meanwhile, premium contributions, net interest income, and net fees and commissions from SACCOs and credit providers are expected to experience relatively flat growth during the outer years, largely reflecting price effects.
The validation workshop underscores the importance of collaboration between government, the private sector and other economic stakeholders in developing projections that accurately capture the realities of Eswatini’s economy.
With the medium-term GDP projections expected to guide planning, policymaking and investment decisions, the validation process is expected to strengthen the country’s ability to anticipate economic opportunities and risks while supporting sustainable economic development.
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