BY MBONO MDLULI
MBABANE– Eswatini’s revenue outlook for the period 2023/24 to 2030/31 reflects steady and broad-based growth, underpinned by rising income tax collections, resilient consumption taxes and stable regional receipts.
According to the Kingdom of Eswatini Budget Estimates for the years from April 1, 2026 to March 31, 2029, the total revenue is projected to increase from E25.80 billion in 2023/24 to E34.59 billion in 2028/29, before reaching E35.06 billion by 2030/31. This consistent upward trend signals strengthening domestic resource mobilisation and gradual economic expansion.
Income Taxes Lead the Growth
Income taxes remain a major pillar of Government revenue. Total income tax collections rise from E7.77 billion in 2023/24 to E12.64 billion by 2028/29, with projections exceeding E12.59 billion by 2030/31.
Company tax shows particularly encouraging growth. Collections increase from E2.02 billion in 2023/24 to E3.69 billion in 2028/29, with final figures surpassing E2.83 billion in 2030/31 (reflecting revised nominal reporting in later years). This suggests improving corporate profitability and compliance, pointing to expansion within the formal sector.
Individual income tax also demonstrates sustained growth, climbing from E5.13 billion to over E8.35 billion by 2030/31. This reflects a growing workforce and rising taxable incomes — positive indicators for economic resilience.
Other income tax categories also remain stable contributors, reinforcing the diversification within this revenue stream.
Goods and Services Remain the Backbone
Taxes on goods and services continue to account for the largest share of total revenue. Collections in this category increase from E17.04 billion in 2023/24 to E20.89 billion in 2028/29, eventually reaching over E21.33 billion by 2030/31.
Value Added Tax (VAT) demonstrates particularly strong growth, rising from E4.37 billion to nearly E7.96 billion. This trend reflects sustained consumer activity and improvements in tax administration.
Customs Union receipts remain relatively stable at around E11.4–E11.6 billion annually. While these transfers provide a critical revenue cushion, their external dependency highlights the importance of strengthening domestic revenue sources.
Fuel tax, motor vehicle levies and levies on alcohol and tobacco show moderate but steady increases, further broadening the tax base.
Property and Non-Tax Revenue
Taxes on property remain small but stable, with transfer duties showing marginal growth over the period.
Non-tax revenue — including property income, fees and fines, and education loan repayments — fluctuates but remains above E1 billion in later years. While comparatively modest, this category provides useful supplementary funding.
The Positive Outlook — With a Caution
The most encouraging feature of the revenue estimates is the consistent upward trajectory across nearly all major tax categories. Growth in income tax and VAT indicates both expanding economic activity and improving collection efficiency.
However, revenue growth alone does not guarantee fiscal stability. If expenditure rises faster than revenue — particularly in recurrent spending and debt servicing — fiscal pressures may intensify despite strong collections.
The Way Forward
To maximise this positive momentum, policymakers may consider:
- Further strengthening tax administration and compliance systems.
- Expanding the formal economy to widen the income tax base.
- Supporting private sector growth to sustain company tax performance.
- Enhancing VAT efficiency through digital monitoring systems.
- Carefully managing expenditure growth to prevent deficits from eroding revenue gains.
In conclusion, the 2023/24–2030/31 revenue outlook reflects a strengthening fiscal capacity built on expanding domestic taxes. With disciplined expenditure management and sustained economic reforms, this revenue growth can serve as a solid foundation for long-term fiscal sustainability.
(Courtesy Pic)
