BY THEMBA ZWANE
MBABANE – Eswatini’s economy is projected to continue expanding in 2026 and 2027, with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasting growth of 3.7 per cent and 3.4 per cent respectively, offering a positive outlook for economic activity despite mounting global pressures.
The projections, published in the IMF’s October 2026 World Economic Outlook, indicate that the Kingdom is expected to maintain economic growth over the next two years, even as higher fuel costs, weaker global demand and tighter financing conditions weigh on the international economy.
The report was highlighted by Brazilian-based international publication The Rio Times on October 14, 2026, bringing Eswatini’s economic outlook to the attention of international readers.
Although the IMF revised its projections downward from the April outlook, the latest figures still point to continued economic expansion rather than a contraction. The Fund had previously projected growth of 4.0 per cent for 2026 and 3.5 per cent for 2027.
INFLATION OUTLOOK OFFERS ENCOURAGEMENT
One of the positive indicators in the IMF assessment is the inflation outlook, with consumer prices in Eswatini projected to rise by 2.9 per cent in 2026 and 3.2 per cent in 2027.
The projections are below the IMF’s estimated average inflation rate of 8.6 per cent for sub-Saharan Africa over the same period.
Relatively moderate inflation could help support price stability and make it easier for households and businesses to plan their spending, although actual living costs will continue to depend on movements in individual prices, including food, fuel and other essential goods.
The inflation outlook also provides an important indicator for policymakers as they work to protect purchasing power while supporting economic activity.
STRONG 2025 PERFORMANCE PROVIDES CONTEXT
The IMF report places the revised forecasts against a stronger-than-previously-estimated performance in 2025, when Eswatini’s economy grew by 4.9 per cent.
That performance was supported by major public and private investment projects, according to The Rio Times.
The achievement provides a useful foundation for efforts to sustain economic activity, attract further investment and expand opportunities for businesses and workers.
However, maintaining momentum will require continued attention to the factors affecting growth, particularly investment activity, access to financing, fuel costs and external demand.
INVESTMENT AND FISCAL MANAGEMENT REMAIN IMPORTANT
The IMF has identified higher fuel costs, weaker global demand, tighter financing conditions, weather-related disruptions and easing investment activity among the pressures affecting Eswatini’s economic outlook.
The report also highlights the importance of managing public finances as the country balances development needs with debt sustainability.
For Eswatini, sustaining growth will depend partly on its ability to encourage private-sector participation, support productive investment and direct public resources towards priorities that can strengthen economic capacity.
The government’s ability to maintain a stable economic environment while managing spending pressures will remain important in determining the pace of growth in the coming years.
A REGIONAL OPPORTUNITY FOR ESWATINI
The IMF’s projections also provide a broader regional perspective. While Eswatini’s forecast growth of 3.7 per cent in 2026 is below the Fund’s 4.5 per cent projection for sub-Saharan Africa, the Kingdom is expected to continue recording positive economic growth.
This outlook reinforces the importance of positioning Eswatini to benefit from regional trade, investment and opportunities in productive sectors.
The country’s participation in the Southern African Customs Union (SACU) also remains significant to public finances, as customs revenue shared among member states contributes to government resources.
The IMF report notes that higher SACU receipts are helping the 2026/27 budget, which targets a deficit of 5.9 per cent of gross domestic product.
Ultimately, the latest projections present a mixed but constructive picture: Eswatini faces external economic pressures, yet its economy is expected to keep growing, inflation is forecast to remain relatively moderate and opportunities remain to strengthen investment and economic resilience.
The challenge for policymakers and the private sector will be to translate that continued growth into more jobs, stronger businesses and tangible improvements in the livelihoods of emaSwati.
#Eswatini #EconomicGrowth #IMF #EconomicStability #Investment #Inflation #PrivateSector #SustainableDevelopment #EconomicResilience #EswatiniPositiveN
